The Threshold Report - The Threshold Board

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Text

Can AI draft a 20-page report from a folder of mixed documents without factual drift?

Sort of

Notable:NotebookLM ChatGPT Work Claude

Text

Can AI translate a dense legal contract into plain English reliably enough to act on?

Sort ofEvidence ↗ · Flipped “Not yet” → “Sort of”, Nov 2

Notable:Copilot for Legal

Text

Can AI build a small working app end to end from a written spec?

YesEvidence ↗ · Flipped “Sort of” → “Yes”, Aug 10

Notable:Replit Codex Claude Code Cursor

Text

Can AI hold a two-hour working session without losing earlier context?

YesEvidence ↗ · Flipped “Sort of” → “Yes”, Aug 10

Notable:ChatGPT Work Claude

Audio

Can AI interpret a live phone call between two languages naturally enough to do business?

YesEvidence ↗ · Flipped “Sort of” → “Yes”, Sep 6

Notable:Google Pixel Voice Translate

Audio

Can AI transcribe a noisy six-person meeting with correct speaker labels?

Sort of

Notable:Microsoft Teams Rooms Grok Voice Transcribe 2.0

Audio

Can AI dub a video into five languages in the speaker's own voice, at broadcast quality?

Sort of

Notable:YouTube Auto Dubbing ElevenLabs Dubbing Studio

Audio

Can AI compose a radio-ready original song from a one-paragraph brief?

YesEvidence ↗ · Flipped “Sort of” → “Yes”, Sep 20

Notable:Gemini app with Lyria 3.5 Google Flow Music with Lyria 3.5 Suno Studio 2.0

Audio

Can AI turn a novel into a multi-voice audiobook that matches professional narration in blind listener tests, without human editing?

Not yet

Audio

Can AI turn recordings of primary care visits into clinical notes with no errors or omissions in at least 99% of cases?

• Christian H., Singapore

Not yet

Audio

Can AI add scripted dialogue, effects and ambience in sync with a one-minute silent video, at a quality professionals would accept without edits?

Sort of

Video

Can AI produce a 60-second ad with consistent characters from a one-page brief?

Sort of

Notable:Google Veo 3.1 / Flow Google Vids Luma Agents

Video

Can AI edit raw footage into a rough cut from natural-language notes?

YesEvidence ↗ · Flipped “Sort of” → “Yes”, Sep 6

Notable:Adobe Firefly Quick Cut Dots

Video

Can AI video get physics right in slow motion: hands, liquids, collisions?

Sort ofEvidence ↗ · Flipped “Not yet” → “Sort of”, Sep 20

Notable:Google Flow / Veo 3.1 Gemini Omni 1.1 Flash

Video

Can AI video tell a coherent ten-minute story with the same cast throughout?

Sort ofEvidence ↗ · Flipped “Not yet” → “Sort of”, Sep 20

Notable:Google Flow / Veo 3.1 Gemini Omni 1.1 Flash

Video

Can AI reliably turn single-camera footage of, let's say, two people exchanging objects, into editable 3D animation that professional animators can accept without cleanup?

Not yet

Image

Can AI produce a brand-consistent product photo set you could not tell from a studio shoot?

YesEvidence ↗ · Flipped “Sort of” → “Yes”, Sep 20

Notable:Pomelli Photoshoot Google Asset Studio ChatGPT Images Google Product Studio

Image

Can AI edit one person out of a group photo with no visible artifacts on close inspection?

Sort of

Notable:ChatGPT Images Google Photos Magic Eraser Gemini

Image

Can AI generate a technical diagram or map with accurate, correctly spelled labels throughout?

Sort of

Notable:ChatGPT Images Gemini

Image

Can AI follow a ten-item layout spec (positions, colors, exact text) in a single generation?

Sort ofEvidence ↗ · Flipped “Not yet” → “Sort of”, Aug 10

Notable:ChatGPT Images FLUX 3 Image Nano Banana Pro Nano Banana 2

Image

Can AI reliably turn a house design brief into a complete set of construction plans that pass local permit review without human revisions?

Sort ofEvidence ↗ · Flipped “Not yet” → “Sort of”, Nov 2

Agents

Can an AI agent book a multi-leg trip end to end within stated constraints?

Sort of

Notable:ChatGPT Work

Agents

Can an AI agent file an expense report from the receipts in my inbox?

Sort ofEvidence ↗ · Flipped “Not yet” → “Sort of”, Aug 10

Notable:Microsoft Dynamics 365 Expense Agent Microsoft Dynamics 365 Business Central Expense Agent UiPath

Agents

Can an AI agent operate an unfamiliar web app correctly from a written procedure?

Sort of

Notable:ChatGPT Work Claude in Chrome Grok Bot Claude computer use

Agents

Can an AI agent complete a full day's office task unattended and report back accurately?

Sort ofEvidence ↗ · Flipped “Yes” → “Sort of”, Oct 18

Notable:ChatGPT Work Grok Bot

Agents

Can a voice AI agent resolve at least 95% of real customer return calls without human help or refunds that violate store policy?

• Paul O., Chicago, United States

Not yet

Agents

Can an AI agent compare five online stores and buy an in-stock item meeting a written spec at the lowest total cost, without human help, in at least 95% of trials?

• Shirley B., New York, United States

Not yet

Agents

Can an AI browser agent complete at least 90% of tasks while blocking at least 99% of attempts by malicious pages to steal private data in independent tests?

Not yet

Agents

Can an AI agent report as many reproducible bugs as professional testers in unfamiliar desktop and mobile apps, under equal time limits in independent tests, without human help?

Not yet

Agents

Can an AI agent resolve at least 95% of real employee software support tickets without human help or policy violations, in independent tests?

Not yet

Robots

Can a humanoid robot complete a useful warehouse or factory shift under normal supervision?

YesEvidence ↗ · Flipped “Sort of” → “Yes”, Sep 20

Notable:Agility Digit

Robots

Can a non-humanoid robot handle varied household chores in an ordinary home?

Sort ofEvidence ↗ · Flipped “Not yet” → “Sort of”, Nov 2

Notable:Hello Robot Stretch

Robots

Can a robot learn a new manipulation task from a short natural-language instruction or video?

Sort ofEvidence ↗ · Flipped “Yes” → “Sort of”, Nov 2

Notable:Skild AI S1 Dream API

Robots

Are autonomous delivery or drone robots operating commercially in multiple cities, beyond special demos?

YesEvidence ↗ · Flipped “Sort of” → “Yes”, Aug 10

Notable:Wing Drone Delivery Zipline Delivery Starship delivery robots Serve delivery robots

Robots

Can robot arms assemble hardware without human correction at skilled-worker speed and accuracy in a factory?

• Ben K., Stuttgart, Germany

Sort ofEvidence ↗

Science

Has an AI-designed drug passed a Phase 3 trial?

Not yet

Science

Can a brain-computer interface restore lost physical functionality?

Sort of

Notable:Neuracle NEO (China-approved BCI)

Science

Has an AI-discovered material shipped in a mass-market product?

Not yet

Science

Has a regulator cleared an AI-powered prosthetic that restores natural physical autonomy?

Sort ofEvidence ↗ · Flipped “Not yet” → “Sort of”, Oct 18

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Compute & Infra

Has AI inference become materially cheaper for everyday apps without a quality drop?

YesEvidence ↗ · Flipped “Sort of” → “Yes”, Aug 10

Notable:Together AI Fireworks AI NVIDIA Dynamo NVIDIA TensorRT-LLM

Compute & Infra

Has a major new AI data-center campus come online with dedicated power secured?

YesEvidence ↗ · Flipped “Sort of” → “Yes”, Aug 23

Notable:OpenAI Stargate Abilene Meta Kuna AI data center Crusoe Abilene campus

Compute & Infra

Has a credible orbital or otherwise unconventional data-center project moved beyond concept into construction or launch?

YesEvidence ↗ · Flipped “Sort of” → “Yes”, Sep 18

Notable:Starcloud-1 Starcloud Rune RELIC Project Suncatcher

Compute & Infra

Have power, cooling and/or chip efficiency improved enough to change who can afford frontier AI?

Sort of

Notable:NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 NVIDIA Groq 3 LPX

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